The Cuts

Half the Help.
Same Need.

From 1 October 2026, NDIS funding for getting out into the community is being cut in half as plans come up for renewal.

Your need didn’t halve. Your rent didn’t halve. The worker’s time didn’t halve.

Newsprint clipping of scissors cutting through paperwork.
50%

Cut to affected social, economic and community participation funding.[1]

10%

Cut to affected funding for building daily living skills.[1]

$38.1bn

Less spending forecast over four years from 2026–27.[2]

2.4%

The share of that figure sitting in pricing and related fraud measures.[2]

What Gets Cut

The cuts don’t land all at once. They apply as each person’s plan is created, reassessed or renewed, so people find out one at a time.[1]

Some supports are exempt. People whose 24-hour support would become unsafe can ask for a variation. Everyone else gets less money for the same help.[1]

The government’s own worked examples say it plainly. One describes a person who needs the same support to get out into the community but receives less money to do it. In another, some funding is put back to cover the extra time the person will now spend at home.[1]

An outing takes a worker’s time. Less money buys fewer hours, unless the price falls or somebody works for free. Families can’t cover every gap.

The government’s own example budgets for a disabled person spending more time at home.

Where the $38.1 Billion Comes From

A released government table breaks down the forecast savings. Most of it comes from people’s budgets. Very little comes from catching crooks.[2]

Selected savings categories, four years from 2026–27

$ billion. The remaining categories make up the rest of the $38.1 billion.

Participation and daily-activity budget changes
$13.2bn
Pricing, fraud and integrity, all measures
$3.7bn
Ministerial pricing decisions and related fraud
$0.9bn

None of these categories is money already recovered from criminals.[2]

Parliament passed the Securing the NDIS for Future Generations Act in August 2026. Rules and decisions made later will decide part of how it bites.[3]

Who Saw It Coming

For Purpose Investment Partners read the same Budget from the other end. The investment manager expects tighter registration and integrity rules to favour providers big enough to meet them.[4]

Smaller providers have to find the money for the new compliance. The big groups already have it, and some of them are owned by funds.

See who’s buying

“structural tailwind for our investment thesis”

For Purpose Investment Partners, on the 2026–27 Budget.[4]

The Market Closes

The cuts come with a second change. Government will decide which businesses you’re allowed to use.[5]

  1. 20 August 2026The Securing the NDIS for Future Generations Act receives assent.[3]
  2. 1 October 2026The 50% and 10% cuts start, plan by plan.[1]
  3. April 2027New framework planning starts, with a support needs assessment used to help set budgets.[5]
  4. October 2027An approved plan-management panel begins. Anyone with a plan manager outside the panel gets six months to move.[5]
  5. July 2028Support coordination comes out of individual plans and is bought directly from appointed providers.[5]

“for some supports there will no longer be an open market with an unlimited number of providers.”[5]

A good service and happy customers won’t be enough any more. A coordinator who knows your life can be locked out if government doesn’t pick them.

The contract conditions will decide who survives. Big geographic contracts, expensive reporting systems and large cash reserves suit the big groups. Small tenders, simple applications and limits on common ownership leave room for local providers.

What We Want Answered

  • Publish the assessment of what the cuts do to participants, families and workers.
  • Count how many people now spend more time at home or in provider-controlled settings.
  • Show why each limit on providers is needed, and what happens when the approved provider can’t deliver.
  • Mark Butler and Jenny McAllister to answer for the disability policy. Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher to answer for the investment settings.
The Buy-upsWho is buying the providers that are left. Read itThe Computer Says NoThe assessment that will help set your budget. Read it

Sources

  1. Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, Funding changes for NDIS supports, updated 24 September 2026. Rates, timetable, exemptions, variations and worked examples. https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/ndis-legislation-changes/amendments/funding-changes-for-ndis-supports
  2. Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, FOI 26-3289, Budget Estimates briefs, released September 2026. Document 11, PDF pp. 46–47: reform costing by category. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/foi-26-3289-budget-estimates.pdf
  3. National Disability Insurance Scheme Amendment (Securing the NDIS for Future Generations) Act 2026, No. 66 of 2026, assented to 20 August 2026. https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2026A00066/asmade
  4. For Purpose Investment Partners, Federal Budget 2026–27: Our Read. https://www.fpinvest.com.au/blog-article/federal-budget-2026-27---our-read
  5. Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, About the changes to the NDIS, accessed 6 October 2026. Implementation dates, plan-management panel, support coordination commissioning and the support needs assessment. https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/ndis-legislation-changes/amendments/ndis-amendment-securing-the-ndis-for-future-generations-bill-2026/about-the-changes-to-the-ndis