How Much
Bullshit?
Every story gets a rating for how much bullshit we think is going on, and how badly it needs to change or go to a royal commission.
The Three Levels
Spin, half-truths and convenient leaving-out. It needs fixing.
Public money, public power and private gain in the same room. It needs a proper inquiry.
Harm on a national scale and nobody held to account. It needs a royal commission, and charges where the evidence supports them.
How They Make You Believe a Narrative
The cuts didn’t sell themselves. The government paid for research on how to sell them.
RedBridge advised the NDIA on how to make unpopular changes more acceptable. Its October 2023 research tested tighter access for children with developmental delay and one worker to three people in supported living.[1]
People strongly opposed both when they were described as cost cuts. Putting benefits and protections first produced “a degree of tolerance”. The advice was blunt.[1]
The research also found people saw a crackdown on fraud as a more believable reason for the review than improving the scheme.[1]
In March 2024, Bill Shorten cited RedBridge’s findings on public compassion for the scheme, then moved on to criminal providers, exploitation and the need for reform.[2]
“We therefore do not recommend discussing either reform in isolation.”
RedBridge, research for the NDIA, October 2023.[1]
Fraud Is Real. It’s Also Small.
Paul Tilbury ran People Come First, a registered provider and plan manager. He made false claims against 19 participants’ plans, including children’s, and charged for services that were never delivered.[3]
The prosecutor reported more than $404,000 in false claims. In March 2025 he got three years, with release after one year and nine months.[3]
That is what fraud looks like. Cutting a person’s hours is something else. Both save money. Only one of them stops a crook.
Of the $38.1 billion in forecast savings
$ billion, four years from 2026–27
The fraud category is about 2.4% of the total.[4]
The advocacy site ndiswasteclock.com counts the other side: an estimated economic loss of about $21.26 billion a year, or $674 a second, using a 2.25 multiplier on the projected cash savings. It’s a model, not an audit, and it says so.[5]
The Nudge Unit
BETA, the Behavioural Economics Team of the Australian Government, sits inside the Prime Minister’s department. Since 2016 it has tested how wording, order and defaults change what people do. By May 2026 it had finished more than 150 projects.[6]
The wording of a letter can change whether someone appeals. When your income or care is on the line, people deserve to know what’s being tested on them and what it found.
The Robodebt Playbook
Rachelle Miller, Alan Tudge’s former media adviser, told the Royal Commission she placed stories with friendly media, including A Current Affair and 2GB, about catching welfare cheats.[7]
The line was that the government was “cracking down on welfare cheats”. Meanwhile, people were ringing the minister’s office to say their debts were wrong.[7]
Story Ratings
Ratings are coming once every story is checked.
Sources
- NDIA, FOI 24/25-0265 decision documents, released 20 December 2024, including RedBridge research reports from October 2023. https://www.righttoknow.org.au/request/11914/response/39139/attach/11/FOI%2024.25%200265%20Decision%20Documents.pdf?cookie_passthrough=1
- Bill Shorten, opinion piece for the West Australian, 28 March 2024. https://formerministers.dss.gov.au/20328/opinion-piece-for-the-west-australian-2/
- Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions, NDIS provider put himself first defrauding 19 people with disabilities, case report, 2025. https://www.cdpp.gov.au/case-reports/ndis-provider-put-himself-first-defrauding-19-people-disabilities
- Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, FOI 26-3289, Budget Estimates briefs, released September 2026. Document 11, PDF pp. 46–47: reform costing by category. https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2026-09/foi-26-3289-budget-estimates.pdf
- NDISWasteClock, The Cost of Cuts, and its published method, accessed 6 October 2026. https://ndiswasteclock.com/
- Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 10 years of BETA, 4 May 2026. https://www.pmc.gov.au/news/10-years-beta
- Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme, hearing day 28, 31 January 2023, evidence of Rachelle Miller, transcript pp. 2791–2793. https://robodebt.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2023-02/transcript-hearing-day-28-31-january-2023.pdf